{"id":9527,"date":"2023-12-21T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-20T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/mandiri.test\/uncategorized-id\/monthly-macro-review-nov-23\/"},"modified":"2026-01-19T16:36:31","modified_gmt":"2026-01-19T09:36:31","slug":"monthly-macro-review-nov-23","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mandiri-invest.azdevs.my.id\/en\/market-update\/monthly-macro-review-nov-23\/","title":{"rendered":"Monthly Macro Review : Last Mile"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Setelah ketidakpastian ekonomi global menerpa di bulan Oktober, pada bulan November 2023 kondisi makro baik global maupun domestik seakan kembali pada jalurnya. Bank sentral utama dunia mengatakan perjuangan pada tahap paling akhir (last mile) selalu paling sulit ditebak karena kebijakan tidak bisa terlalu ketat sehingga kondisi ekonomi akan semakin memburuk, namun tidak boleh lengah karena akan menyia-nyiakan perjuangan menormalkan ekonomi yang selama ini diusahakan. Dengan kembalinya inflasi ke tren penurunan setelah sempat naik dan kebijakan moneter yang tetap (tanpa kenaikan) membuat pasar kembali yakin bahwa para pembuat kebijakan mampu mengendalikan situasi di akhir 2023. Kondisi ekonomi domestik juga kembali stabil dengan menguatnya nilai tukar Rupiah dan membaiknya pergerakan pasar modal di November 2023.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"overview\">Overview<\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bank sentral utama menahan kenaikan suku bunga dan, secara umum, kondisi ekonomi global bergerak ke arah yang diharapkan. Bank sentral telah berulang kali mengatakan last mile (tantangan terakhir dalam meredakan inflasi), yang melibatkan pengendalian pertumbuhan harga barang dan jasa, akan lebih sulit. Meskipun demikian, inflasi inti baru-baru ini sudah mulai membaik. Tanda-tanda semakin meredupnya aktivitas ekonomi di AS, Eropa, dan Inggris semakin terlihat. Hal ini akan memperkuat alasan untuk mulai menurunkan suku bunga lebih cepat dari yang diperkirakan. Namun, masih terlalu dini untuk menyatakan mission accomplished. Para pengambil kebijakan perlu mencermati pergerakan inflasi inti dengan memperhatikan dinamika jangka menengah seperti perubahan demografi, revolusi AI, dan pergeseran geopolitik yang dapat ikut mempengaruhi harga.<\/p>\n<p>Bank Indonesia mempertahankan suku bunga acuan sebesar 6,00% pada November 2023. Nilai tukar Rupiah sudah kembali di bawah Rp 15.500 per USD setelah pada bulan sebelumnya mendekati Rp 16.000 per USD. Hal ini didukung oleh langkah antisipasi BI melalui berbagai instrumen dalam beberapa bulan terakhir. Besar kemungkinan berbagai kebijakan moneter tersebut menyebabkan jumlah uang beredar M2 hanya tumbuh sebesar 3% dari biasanya sebesar 5-6%. Di samping itu, anggaran pemerintah sampai dengan Oktober 2023 baru memasuki defisit tipis dari target tahun ini di defisit 1,7% terhadap PDB. Dengan demikian pemerintah masih memiliki dana yang besar untuk digunakan akhir tahun atau setidaknya menjadi anggaran cadangan untuk tahun depan.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"topic-of-discussion\">Topic of discussion<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Inflasi.<\/li>\n<li>PMI Manufacturing dan Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen.<\/li>\n<li>Neraca dagang, ekspor dan impor.<\/li>\n<li>Data makro ekonomi.<\/li>\n<li>Penjualan mobil dan motor.<\/li>\n<li>Analisa kondisi makro ekonomi dan kondisi pasar modal.<\/li>\n<li>Kesimpulan dan Rekomendasi.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 id=\"rekomendasi\">Rekomendasi<\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Sinyal taktikal strategi jangka pendek pada Desember 2023 mulai menunjukan perubahan menjadi sedikit lebih agresif dari sebelumnya yang defensif dengan mengurangi porsi pasar uang untuk menaikan porsi pada aset obligasi menjadi 50% (vs 37.5% sebelumnya) dan saham masih tetap di 37,5% serta pasar uang turun menjadi 12,5% (vs 25% sebelumnya). Secara jangka menengah-panjang kami memiliki pandangan positif untuk kedua kelas aset (saham dan obligasi) seiring dengan ekspektasi kami bahwa siklus ekonomi global dan dalam negeri yang kembali pulih di beberapa waktu mendatang. Rekomendasi produk saham bertahan pada saham berkapitalisasi besar yaitu RD MICB, RD ASEAN 5 Plus, RD Index FTSE Indonesia ESG dan ETF Mandiri Indeks LQ45 (XMLF). Sementara pada kelas pendapatan tetap produk RD IDAMAN dan MIDU dapat menjadi pertimbangan untuk investor yang ingin memiliki eksposur produk berdurasi menengah &#8211; panjang (risiko tinggi) dan berdurasi pendek (risiko rendah) dengan pembagian dividen regular.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<figure class=\"kg-card kg-image-card\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"kg-image aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/article.moinves.co.id\/content\/images\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-21-at-10.00.05.png\" sizes=\"(min-width: 720px) 720px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/article.moinves.co.id\/content\/images\/size\/w600\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-21-at-10.00.05.png 600w, https:\/\/article.moinves.co.id\/content\/images\/size\/w1000\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-21-at-10.00.05.png 1000w, https:\/\/article.moinves.co.id\/content\/images\/size\/w1600\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-21-at-10.00.05.png 1600w, https:\/\/article.moinves.co.id\/content\/images\/2023\/12\/Screenshot-2023-12-21-at-10.00.05.png 1660w\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"rekomendasi-produk\">Rekomendasi Produk<\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"saham\">Saham<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/saham\/mandiri-investa-cerdas-bangsa-micb-kelas-a\/\">Mandiri Investa Cerdas Bangsa (MICB)\u2013 Kelas A<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\nSaham domestik, Mayoritas saham kapitalisasi besar, Likuiditas tinggi, dan Denominasi Rupiah<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/saham\/mandiri-investa-equity-asean-5-plus-asean-5\/\">Mandiri Investa Equity Asean 5 Plus (MANSEA5)<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\nSaham domestik &amp; global, All cap fund, dan Denominasi Rupiah<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"saham-global\">Saham Global<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/syariah\/mandiri-global-sharia-equity-dollar-mgsed-kelas-a\/\">Mandiri Global Syaria Equity Dollar (MGSED) \u2013 Kelas A<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\nSaham global, Denominasi USD, dan Kerjasama dengan JP Morgan AM<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/saham\/mandiri-asia-sharia-equity-dollar-mased-kelas-a\/\">Mandiri Asia Sharia Equity Dollar (MASED) \u2013 Kelas A<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\nSaham Syariah Luar Negeri di dalam Daftar Efek Syariah<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"index\">Index<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/indeks\/mandiri-indeks-ftse-indonesia-esg-kelas-a\/\">Mandiri Indeks FTSE Indonesia ESG (FTSEESG) \u2013 Kelas A<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\nSaham domestik, Denominasi Rupiah, Berorientasi ESG, dan Pengelolaan pasif<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/etf\/mandiri-etf-lq45\/\">Mandiri ETF LQ45 (XMLF)<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\nTracking error rendah, Transaksi jual\/beli dapat di lakukan setiap saat, dan Nilai transaksi real time<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"pendapatan-tetap\">Pendapatan Tetap<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/pendapatan-tetap\/mandiri-investa-dana-utama-midu\/\">Mandiri Investa Dana Utama (MIDU)<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\nObligasi pemerintah &amp; korporasi, Pembagian dividen bulanan, dan Durasi: pendek (&lt; 4 tahun)<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/pendapatan-tetap\/investa-dana-dollar-mandiri-idaman\/\">Investa Dana Dollar Mandiri (IDAMAN)<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\nObligasi pemerintah USD (INDON), Durasi menengah &#8211; panjang, dan Denominasi USD<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3 id=\"pasar-uang\">Pasar Uang<\/h3>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/pasar-uang\/mandiri-investa-pasar-uang-mipu-2\/\">Mandiri Investa Pasar Uang (MIPU)<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\nInstrumen Pasar Uang dengan segmen Jangka Pendek<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table class=\"table table-striped table-bordered\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>PRODUK<\/th>\n<th>3M PERFORMANCE<\/th>\n<th>YTD PERFORMANCE<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\"><strong>Saham<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/saham\/mandiri-investa-cerdas-bangsa-micb-kelas-a\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MICB A<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"loss\">-6,5%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+0,4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/saham\/mandiri-investa-equity-asean-5-plus-asean-5\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ASEAN5<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"loss\">-7,1%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"loss\">-2,6%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\"><strong>Saham Global<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/syariah\/mandiri-global-sharia-equity-dollar-mgsed-kelas-a\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MGSED A<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+7,0%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+21,7%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/saham\/mandiri-asia-sharia-equity-dollar-mased-kelas-b\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MASED B<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+2,7%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"loss\">-8,4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\"><strong>Index<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/indeks\/mandiri-indeks-ftse-indonesia-esg-kelas-a\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FTSEESG A<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"loss\">-1,9%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+2,9%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/etf\/mandiri-etf-lq45\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">XMLF<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"loss\">-1,3%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"-\">&#8211;<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\"><strong>Pendapatan Tetap<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/reksa-dana\/pendapatan-tetap\/mandiri-investa-dana-utama-midu?utm_source=weekly-market-recap\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MIDU<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+1,07%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+3,29%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/pendapatan-tetap\/investa-dana-dollar-mandiri-idaman\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IDAMAN<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+5,08%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+4,64%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td colspan=\"3\"><strong>Pasar Uang<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/id\/produk\/reksa-dana\/pasar-uang\/mandiri-investa-pasar-uang-mipu-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MIPU<\/a><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+0,95%<\/span><\/td>\n<td><span class=\"gain\">+3,41%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>*Data diatas adalah data per tanggal 21 Desember 2023<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Untuk membaca hal-hal yang terjadi di bulan November 2023 yang mempengaruhi ekonomi secara makro selengkapnya disini:<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"invest-button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/Monthly-macro-review-Nov23.pdf\">Baca Selengkapnya<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3 id=\"info-lebih-lanjut\">Info Lebih Lanjut<\/h3>\n<p>Hubungi Mandiri Investasi &#8211;\u00a0<a href=\"tel:0215263505\">(021) 526 3505<\/a><br \/>\nWhatsapp Mandiri Investasi &#8211; 0816 86 0003<br \/>\nEmail Mandiri Investasi &#8211;\u00a0cs@mandiri-investasi.co.id<br \/>\nMandiri Investasi &#8211;\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mandiri-investasi.co.id\/\">www.mandiri-investasi.co.id<\/a><br \/>\nMoinves &#8211;\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/moinves.co.id\/\">www.moinves.co.id<\/a><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><em>DISCLAIMER<\/em><br \/>\n<em><br \/>\nPendapat yang diungkapkan dalam artikel adalah untuk tujuan informasi umum saja dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan saran atau rekomendasi khusus untuk individu atau produk keamanan atau investasi tertentu. Ini hanya dimaksudkan untuk memberikan edukasi tentang industri keuangan. Pandangan yang tercermin dalam konten dapat berubah sewaktu-waktu tanpa pemberitahuan. Seluruh data kinerja dan return investasi yang tertera di artikel ini tidak dapat digunakan sebagai dasar jaminan perhitungan untuk membeli atau menjual suatu efek. Data tersebut merupakan catatan kinerja berdasarkan data historis dan bukan merupakan jaminan atas kinerja suatu efek di masa mendatang. Investasi melalui reksa dana mengandung risiko. Investor wajib membaca dan memahami prospektus sebelum memutuskan untuk berinvestasi melalui reksa dana.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After the global economic uncertainty in October, in November 2023, both global and domestic macro conditions seem to have returned to normal trajectory.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7084,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[368,382],"tags":[365],"class_list":["post-9527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-market-update","tag-english"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Monthly Macro Review : Last Mile - Mandiri Investasi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"After the global economic uncertainty in October, in November 2023, both global and domestic macro conditions seem to have returned to normal trajectory.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Monthly Macro Review : Last Mile - 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